Uncertainty in Human Decision-Making

In the talk by Dr. Konrad Kording, The Influence of Uncertainty on Motor Learning and Its Neural Representation, Dr. Kording explained the baisen probability model of human decision-making. The basien probability is the product of the probability of an outcome based on observed data and the probability of an outcome based on previous experience.

To test the validity of the model, Dr. Kording created an experiment where the subject had to drag their finger across a board. However, the participants could not see their finger, rather they saw a projection that did not reflect reality. During most of the test, the participant received no feedback, at about halfway across they were shown a cursor that could be displaced by some (usually small) distance from where their finger actually was. At the end, they were also showed a cursor. By measuring how the participants changed their motion, the actual displacement and the predicted displacement could be compared. The model fits the data quite well, indicating that humans us baisen probability to decide how to best respond to uncertain situations.